Agricultural production dynamic Analysis

Application of an ARDL Model (2) on Provincial Panel Data

The goal of this research has been a contribution to improving the knowledge of the microeconomic behavior of the Burundian agricultural producer.

The crops concerned are the following food crops: beans, sweet potatoes, and cassava.

According to the regression of the ARDL (2) model, for the bean crop, the real price at level displays a positive and insignificant coefficient, the real price delayed by one period displays a positive and significant coefficient and the real price delayed by two periods is negative and significant.

Thus, it is especially the real price at the end of the agricultural season that could trigger the producer's decision to adjust upward its bean production.

For sweet potatoes, the actual real price and the lagged real price each have a positive impact on supply in the agricultural season.

Probably, it is a crop for which producers have no difficulty in quickly increasing the level of production given its high sensitivity to the price of the current season.

For the fresh cassava crop, the actual level and lagged price of a period are negative and insignificant, the actual lagged price of two periods is positive is significant.