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This book examined the effects of specific exogenous shocks – oil price shocks, OPEC oil production shocks, and productivity shocks to a major trade partner – on Nigeria’s external sector.
Employing a Structural Macroeconomic Model (SMM) comprising of ten behavioural equations and four identities with quarterly data spanning from 1981 to 2015, the SMM simulations of the external sector found that oil price shocks, OPEC Oil production shocks and foreign country productivity shocks do have significant impacts on the components of Nigeria’s external sector.
while oil price shocks and foreign country productivity shocks elicited varying responses from all components of Nigeria’s external sector components, simulations from OPEC oil production shocks revealed that only the current account balance and total exports, oil exports and service exports responded to this shock.
The simulated results showed very limited evidence of asymmetry in the responses to both positive and negative exogenous shocks.
Chukwuemeka Onyebuchi Onyimadu is a development economist with interest in public finance, macroeconomic modeling and simulations.
He is currently a Research Fellow at the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, National Assembly, Abuja.
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